Jamaica knows about BIG OIL first hand! High oil prices translate to high gas prices. Petroleum is also an ingredient in fertilizer. This, combined with higher transportation costs, increases food prices. Oil and its main product petroleum are sown into the very fiber of Jamaica’s modern civilization, everything one way or another is connected to something operated by oil. So in essence, when oil goes up, everything goes up.

Oil prices hit an all-time high of $145 a barrel in July 2008 due to surging demand from China and India, combined with decreasing supply from Nigeria and Iraq oil fields. Demand and Supply factors are not the only things factors dictating the direction of oil prices. In fact it can be argued that commodity traders are playing an ever increasing role in the determination of oil prices. Ever since the financial crisis in 2008 investors have been stampeding out of the falling real estate and stock markets. Instead, they have diverted their funds to oil futures and the spot oil market.

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This sudden surge of money chasing oil drove up oil prices, creating a speculative bubble. It is because of this speculation that it is feasible for oil prices to remain above $100 and even continue to climb.  If it happened once before, it can happen again. The big question is what will happen to Jamaica’s economy and other economies all over the world which do not produce oil but are dependent on it, if oil reaches $145 again.

If oil hits $145 again the situation is ripe for two kinds of outcomes. The first is that things get progressively worse till as we have seen in many countries citizens spill out on the streets. The second is a total system shutdown as rising oil prices will push up the cost of living to unbearable levels forcing everyone to realize the current system cannot continue.

Let’s examine the first scenario. Gas riots take place all over the world and we have had our own gas riots in Jamaica.  In April 1999, when PJ announced a 31% gas tax Jamaicans rioted. From Morant Point to Negril Point, tires went up in flames.
Businesses were forced to close as Jamaicans unified against high gas prices. the police force, the military and the Fire Brigade, worked overtime to contain the protests. Many commuters such as myself were forced to walk long distances as bus drivers and taxi operators abandoned their routes and parked their vehicles.

The Security Forces, which were largely outnumbered by demonstrators, struggled to contain the situation and sometimes stood quietly by while the protestors had their way. During the mayhem, at least three members of the security forces were shot and injured. A pregnant woman was also shot and killed. Several private and public vehicles were set on fire and some firemen were stoned while trying to put out the blaze. The demonstrations led to more than 100 arrests in the Corporate Area, St. Elizabeth, St. Thomas, Clarendon, St. Catherine and St. James. After almost a week PJ cut the 31% fuel tax in half.  So dear readers it is entirely possible for Jamaica to break out into riots and total mayhem should gas prices get unbearable.

The other scenario is much more drastic. Can the system give way and a total system shutdown occur? Possible, but unlikely.  Jamaica is more like the frog that gets boiled without actually realizing it is getting boiled.

If you drop a frog in a pot of boiling water, it will of course frantically try to clamber out and jump out immediately. But if you place it gently in a pot of tepid water and turn the heat on low, it will float there quite placidly. As the water gradually heats up, the frog will sink into a tranquil stupor, exactly like anyone of us in a hot bath, and before long, with a smile on its face, it will unresistingly allow itself to be boiled to death.

The fact is that oil prices and the prices at the pump have increased substantially, but why have Jamaicans stopped rioting in the streets. It is because of how it is done. When PJ tried to impose a 31% gas tax in one blow, of course we jumped out of the hot pot of oil.

However, since then the tax levied on gas has been more palatably imposed. Jamaicans for the main part have grown accustomed to the fluctuations at the pump and have even accepted subsequent taxes and the fact that the price of oil may jump in the future. As a result their response has been to alter their lives to accommodate rising oil prices. Instead of eating three meals a day they eat two so that they can pay their taxi fare. When the taxi is no longer affordable they opt for the bus. When the bus fare becomes challenging, ghetto stake graces the dinner table more regularly.

Perhaps without realizing it Jamaicans have been reducing their standard of living all in an effort to accommodate rising transportation and electricity costs. They have become the frog which is gradually being boiled to death, in a pot of rising oil prices. Don’t believe me, then what about the Jamaica Public Service.

No entity is more hated in Jamaica currently than JPS. Even though they currently engage in despicable practices such as back billing, they have been able to continue with the blessing of the Office of Utility Regulation (OUR) and the Government. We truly are at a state of JPS - Jamaica People Suffering. Yes readers we all are being boiled slowly.

Contributed by the Tryin Farmer…

Tagged as big oil, conserve, energy sources, gas riots, oil, oil crisis

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